Abstract 84P
Background
To modify the tumor burden score (TBS) and to develop a comprehensive and practical prognostic scoring system among Chinese patients with colorectal liver metastases (CRLM).
Methods
787 adult patients who underwent curative-intent liver resection for CRLM were identified from Zhongshan Hospital in Shanghai, China between June 2010 and January 2018. Tumor relapse-free survival (RFS) was the main outcomes. TBS was modified with geometric algorithms. The Cox regression model was used to identify independent predictors of prognosis. Time-dependent AUC, calibration curve, and C-index were employed to validate the predictive ability of a survival model.
Results
Modified TBS (mTBS) was established by a mathematical equation (parameters were CRLM size, CRLM number, and unilobar/bilobar metastasis). mTBS model (AUC=0.62 at 33 Month) out-performed TBS model (AUC=0.54 at 33 Month) in predicting RFS (P=.002). Five preoperative predictors of worse RFS were identified and were incorporated into CERR score: KRAS/NRAS/BRAF mutated tumor (score 1 point); node-positive primary (1 point); extrahepatic disease (1 point); CEA level >200 ng/ml or CA 19-9 >200 U/mL (1 point); mTBS between 5 and 11 (1 point) or 12 and over (2 points). Patients undergoing hepatectomy for CRLM were stratified by CERR score into risk groups: high-risk group (CERR score 4 or more) had a 3-year RFS rate of 9.77%; medium-risk group (CERR score 2-3) had a 3-year RFS rate of 21.96%; low-risk group (CERR score 0-1) had a 3-year RFS rate of 39.90%. The CERR score model was further validated using internal bootstrap validation, and the discriminatory capacity of the CERR score was significantly superior to that of the Fong score and that of the Genetic and Morphological Evaluation (GAME) score.
Conclusions
Modified TBS should be promoted. The CERR score is a powerful prognostic tool that can help to determine the optimal clinical management strategies.
Clinical trial identification
Editorial acknowledgement
Legal entity responsible for the study
Zhongshan Hospital.
Funding
The National Natural Science Foundation of China.
Disclosure
All authors have declared no conflicts of interest.
Resources from the same session
155P - Mean Platelet Volume (MPV) is it a new prognostic marker in resectable carcinoma stomach?
Presenter: Girish M. S
Session: Poster display session
Resources:
Abstract
156P - A positive feedback between IDO1 metabolite and COL12A1 via MAPK pathway to promote gastric cancer metastasis
Presenter: Zhen Xiang
Session: Poster display session
Resources:
Abstract
157P - Lymph node ratio (LNR) a better prognostic factor after D2 gastrectomy
Presenter: Jitin Yadav
Session: Poster display session
Resources:
Abstract
158P - A clinical significance of preoperative C-reactive protein/albumin ratio in patients with extrahepatic bile duct cancer
Presenter: Kim Jinkook
Session: Poster display session
Resources:
Abstract
159P - The relation between obesity and cancer of gastrointestinal tract in Korea: The data from Statistic Korea between 2001 and 2016
Presenter: Hee Man Kim
Session: Poster display session
Resources:
Abstract
160P - Clinical outcomes of second-line chemotherapy after progression on nab-paclitaxel plus gemcitabine in patients with metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma
Presenter: Jooyoung Ha
Session: Poster display session
Resources:
Abstract
161P - Chitinase 3-Like 1 gene (T/C) polymorphism and serum YKL-40 in hepatocellular carcinoma
Presenter: Alshimaa Alhanafy
Session: Poster display session
Resources:
Abstract
162P - Hypofractionated radiotherapy for pulmonary metastases from hepatocellular carcinoma: Treatment response and prognostic factors affecting survival
Presenter: In Young Jo
Session: Poster display session
Resources:
Abstract
163P - Excision repair cross-complementation group 1 and 2 (ERCC1/2) Single nucleotide polymorphisms and chemotherapy treatment outcome in Cholangiocarcinoma
Presenter: Thanachai Sanlung
Session: Poster display session
Resources:
Abstract
164P - Multi-centered phase II trial of weekly 5-FU plus l-LV regimen as salvage line chemotherapy for oral fluorouracil resistant advanced gastric cancer (HGCSG1502)
Presenter: Yusuke Sasaki
Session: Poster display session
Resources:
Abstract