Abstract 1733
Background
More than half of early breast cancer recurrences occur after 5 years from the initial diagnosis. An individualized estimate of the risk of late-period breast cancer-specific death (LP-BCSD) after 5 years of endocrine therapy (ET) can improve decision-making for extended endocrine therapy (EET).
Methods
A total of 147,059 eligible patients with breast cancer who survived 5+ years after diagnosis between 1990 and 2007 were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Univariate and multivariate analyses based on the competing risk regression model were used to evaluate predictive factors for high risk of LP-BCSD or LP-non-BCSD. Significant factors were used to build a nomogram to individualize estimates of LP-BCSD or LP-non-BCSD.
Results
The 5- and 10-year LP-BCSD rates were 5.67% and 10.06%, respectively, and the 5- and 10-year LP-non-BCSD rates were 6.72% and 15.50%, respectively. Young age, black race, single marital status, poor differentiation, large tumor size, lymph node metastasis, and ER+/PR- status were independent predictive factors for high risk of LP-BCSD. Age was the most important factor for predicting high risk of LP-non-BCSD. The nomograms, which were based on significant factors identified by the competing risk regression model. A risk score system based on the competing risk nomogram was established to describe the relative risk of LP-BCSD and LP-non-BCSD.
Conclusions
This study explored the novel endpoint of LP-BCSD for further clinical trials. The risk score system is highly useful for patient counseling, especially in discussing EET options with elderly or comorbid patients.
Clinical trial identification
Editorial acknowledgement
Legal entity responsible for the study
Jianfei Fu.
Funding
Science & Technology Division of Jinhua Zhejiang Province.
Disclosure
All authors have declared no conflicts of interest.
Resources from the same session
3425 - Feasibility and impact of prospective DPYD screening in the Irish population
Presenter: Mohammed Zameer
Session: Poster Display session 2
Resources:
Abstract
1972 - Diet-derived metabolites and the risk of colorectal cancer: a nested case-control study in a population-based cohort, the Singapore Chinese Health Study
Presenter: Dawn Chong
Session: Poster Display session 2
Resources:
Abstract
4103 - Loss of subcutaneous adipose tissue during chemotherapy predicts reduced survival in patients with incurable colorectal cancer undergoing palliative therapy
Presenter: Erin Stella Sullivan
Session: Poster Display session 2
Resources:
Abstract
4309 - Obese and overweight is associated with better prognosis in metastatic colorectal cancer patients treated with bevacizumab.
Presenter: Bozena Cybulska-Stopa
Session: Poster Display session 2
Resources:
Abstract
3554 - Patient characteristics associated with poor performance status, ECOG 2-3, and effect on survival in 1086 Finnish metastatic colorectal cancers (mCRC) nationwide (prospective RAXO study)
Presenter: Pia Österlund
Session: Poster Display session 2
Resources:
Abstract
4572 - Discovery and Diagnosis of Metastatic Colorectal Cancer (mCRC) in the Real World: Final Results from a European Survey
Presenter: Iga Rawicka
Session: Poster Display session 2
Resources:
Abstract
4783 - Adherence to recommended intake of calcium and colorectal cancer risk in the HEXA study
Presenter: Jeeyoo Lee
Session: Poster Display session 2
Resources:
Abstract
5106 - Body size, sex and sidedness of incident colorectal cancer in a prospective Swedish cohort study
Presenter: Christina Siesing
Session: Poster Display session 2
Resources:
Abstract
3364 - Middle East & North Africa Registry to characterize RAS mutation status and tumor specifications in recently diagnosed patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (MORE-RAS Study)
Presenter: Mohamed Oukkal
Session: Poster Display session 2
Resources:
Abstract
3668 - Patient Demographics and Management Landscape of Metastatic Colorectal Cancer in the Third Line Setting: real-world data in an Australian Population
Presenter: Sandy Tun Min
Session: Poster Display session 2
Resources:
Abstract