Abstract 1733
Background
More than half of early breast cancer recurrences occur after 5 years from the initial diagnosis. An individualized estimate of the risk of late-period breast cancer-specific death (LP-BCSD) after 5 years of endocrine therapy (ET) can improve decision-making for extended endocrine therapy (EET).
Methods
A total of 147,059 eligible patients with breast cancer who survived 5+ years after diagnosis between 1990 and 2007 were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Univariate and multivariate analyses based on the competing risk regression model were used to evaluate predictive factors for high risk of LP-BCSD or LP-non-BCSD. Significant factors were used to build a nomogram to individualize estimates of LP-BCSD or LP-non-BCSD.
Results
The 5- and 10-year LP-BCSD rates were 5.67% and 10.06%, respectively, and the 5- and 10-year LP-non-BCSD rates were 6.72% and 15.50%, respectively. Young age, black race, single marital status, poor differentiation, large tumor size, lymph node metastasis, and ER+/PR- status were independent predictive factors for high risk of LP-BCSD. Age was the most important factor for predicting high risk of LP-non-BCSD. The nomograms, which were based on significant factors identified by the competing risk regression model. A risk score system based on the competing risk nomogram was established to describe the relative risk of LP-BCSD and LP-non-BCSD.
Conclusions
This study explored the novel endpoint of LP-BCSD for further clinical trials. The risk score system is highly useful for patient counseling, especially in discussing EET options with elderly or comorbid patients.
Clinical trial identification
Editorial acknowledgement
Legal entity responsible for the study
Jianfei Fu.
Funding
Science & Technology Division of Jinhua Zhejiang Province.
Disclosure
All authors have declared no conflicts of interest.
Resources from the same session
5873 - Association between PIK3CA mutation status and development of brain metastases in HR+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer
Presenter: Donna Fitzgerald
Session: Poster Display session 2
Resources:
Abstract
3588 - The role of AXL as mechanism of resistance to trastuzumab and a prognostic factor in breast cancer HER2 positive: a translational approach.
Presenter: Anna Adam-Artigues
Session: Poster Display session 2
Resources:
Abstract
5640 - Untargeted assessment of tumor fractions in plasma for monitoring and prognostication from metastatic breast cancer patients undergoing systemic treatment
Presenter: Marija Balic
Session: Poster Display session 2
Resources:
Abstract
2616 - Clinical application of mutational analysis in breast cancer patients: the relevance of PIK3CA analysis for precision medicine.
Presenter: Juan Miguel Cejalvo
Session: Poster Display session 2
Resources:
Abstract
3870 - A retrospective gene expression analysis of surgically-removed Breast Cancer Brain Metastasis (BCBM)
Presenter: Meritxell Mallafré-Larrosa
Session: Poster Display session 2
Resources:
Abstract
1240 - Endocrine therapy alone versus targeted combination strategy as first line treatment in elderly patients with hormone receptor-positive advanced breast cancer: meta-analysis of Phase II and III randomized clinical trials
Presenter: Claudia Omarini
Session: Poster Display session 2
Resources:
Abstract
5535 - Alpelisib (ALP) + fulvestrant (FUL) for patients with hormone receptor–positive (HR+), HER2− advanced breast cancer (ABC): management and time course of key adverse events of special interest (AESIs) in SOLAR-1
Presenter: Hope Rugo
Session: Poster Display session 2
Resources:
Abstract
3093 - Changes in Hormone-Receptor status in Luminal breast cancers between primary tumor and metastases: results of the observational cohort GIM-13 AMBRA Study
Presenter: Marina Cazzaniga
Session: Poster Display session 2
Resources:
Abstract
1378 - MONARCH 3: Updated time to chemotherapy and disease progression following abemaciclib plus aromatase inhibitor (AI) in HR+, HER2- advanced breast cancer (ABC)
Presenter: Miguel Martín
Session: Poster Display session 2
Resources:
Abstract
3536 - Palbociclib plus an aromatase inhibitor as first-line therapy for metastatic breast cancer in US clinical practices: Real-world progression-free survival analysis
Presenter: Mylin Torres
Session: Poster Display session 2
Resources:
Abstract