Abstract 1467P
Background
Lack of effective tools to predict the prognosis of patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). The purpose of our research is to develop a nomogram based on patient clinical data to predict overall survival.
Methods
A retrospective analysis of ESCC patients who received or did not receive radiotherapy at the Sichuan Cancer Hospital from March 20, 2012 to December 25, 2017. 181 ESCC patients were randomly divided into 141 training cohort and 40 validation cohort. The Kaplan-Meier method and the Cox proportional regression model were used to determine the nomogram to identify the prognostic factors, and the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve) was used to evaluate the predictive effect of the research model.
Results
In the training cohort, the median OS in the high group (> 222) was 49.9 months, the 1-year OS rate was 89.7%, and the 3-year OS rate was 59.9%; the median OS in the low group (<222) was 14.4 months, the 1-year OS rate was 52.1%, and the 3-year OS rate was 21.4%. Multivariate analysis found that age, KPS score, T stage, chemotherapy, BMI, CEI, and NLR were identified as predictors of OS. The C-index of the training cohort and the validation cohort were 0.709 (95% CI = 0.679-0.739) and 0.720 (95% CI = 0.658-0.782) respectively. The ROC curve area of the training cohort and the verification cohort were 0.731 and 0.644, respectively.
Conclusions
Nomogram can effectively predict the survival prognosis of patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.
Clinical trial identification
Editorial acknowledgement
Legal entity responsible for the study
The authors.
Funding
Has not received any funding.
Disclosure
All authors have declared no conflicts of interest.