ESMO Congress 2024 | OncologyPRO

Abstract 1938P

Background

The prognosis for young patients with papillary thyroid cancer is usually good unless distant metastases occur. Lung metastasis is one of the most common distant metastases of thyroid cancer, but lacks an effective way to predict it. Our aim was to develop a nomogram to predict the possibility of lung metastases in patients with papillary thyroid cancer under 55 years old, considering the genetic background.

Methods

243 patients with papillary thyroid cancer under 55 years old were collected from January 2017 to June 2020 and randomly divided (7:3) into the training (n=170) and validation (n=73) groups. Univariate and multivariate binary logistic regression analyses were conducted, based on which a nomogram related to the risk of lung metastases of thyroid cancer was built in the training group. The nomogram was evaluated by calibration curves and decision curve analysis (DCA), the concordance index (C-index) and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) in the training and validation groups, respectively.

Results

T stage, Single-side invasion, TERT mutation and BRAF mutation were the independent prognostic factors for the construction of the nomogram. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.89 and 0.88 in the training and validation groups, respectively. The AUC, DAC, and calibration curves for nomogram showed satisfactory results. The cut-off value was 0.229, with a sensitivity of 0.829 and a specificity of 0.793.

Conclusions

A nomogram with good predictive capability has been established and validated, which may do a favor to predict lung metastases of young patients with papillary thyroid cancer in clinical practice.