Abstract 1861P
Background
The accuracy of the current staging systems, INPC histology categories and COG risk group, for predicting the overall survival of patients with neuroblastoma are still unsatisfactory. We aimed at developing a nomogram to accurately predict individual survival. This study sought to externally validate this nomogram using the Chinese cohort.
Methods
The records of 499 patients of neuroblastoma using the TARGET database's newest database with the publication time ranging from 2007 to 2015 were retrospectively analyzed. The nomogram was established by using prognostic factors determined by LASSO regression and the predictive accuracy was verified with the concordance index and the AUCs of ROC curves. Additionally, 155 patients of neuroblastoma, who were treated between 2011 and 2019 at our institute, were included as an external validation set.
Results
Gender, age, MYCN stage, INSS stage, diagnostic category and primary site were significant variables used to develop a nomogram for OS, which had a concordance index of 0.745 (95% CI, 0.700-0.790). The AUCs of ROC curves of 3-, and 5-year OS were 0.730 and 0.806. The calibration curved for the probability of postoperative 3-, and 5-year OS showed good agreement between the predicted and observed outcomes. The external validation showed the higher AUCs of ROC curves of 3-, 5-year OS were 0.840 and 0.824. Regard to the Chinese validation set, C-index (0.816 (95% CI, 0.747-0.885)) was also enhanced compared with the TARGET training set. Furthermore, according to the nomogram-predicted scores, the patients were respectively stratified into 2 and 3 groups with different risks to compared with the INPC histology categories and the COG risk group. The nomogram showed a better accuracy in predicting OS than the two current staging systems in K-M curves and AUC value.
Conclusions
Our nomogram based on TARGET database can predict the 3-, and 5-year OS of patients with NB and show satisfactory utility in Chinese clinical practice.
Clinical trial identification
Editorial acknowledgement
Legal entity responsible for the study
Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute and Hospital.
Funding
The National Key R&D Program of China.
Disclosure
All authors have declared no conflicts of interest.