Abstract 3097
Background
Cancer is a disease of elderly, however data from evidence-based-medicine are missing for therapeutic decision in this population. One of the main issues is to avoid over- and undertreatment situations. Cancer treatment decision in the elderly mainly relies on the Geriatric Assessment (GA) recommended by the International Society of Geriatric Oncology (SIOG). Based on the GA, predictive scores of early death have been developed but they remain difficult to implement in daily oncological practice. In this study, we proposed a simple score with five clinical items to predict 6-month mortality risk in older cancer patients, to guide therapeutic decision.
Methods
A total of 603 patients aged 65 and over were prospectively included in registry in a two-center cohort study that started in November 2013. The whole cohort was divided in a development subset (n = 439), and a validation subset (n = 164) We created a multivariate Cox proportional hazard model with a selection process based on the lowest Akaïke Information Criteria. A beta-coefficient point-based scoring system was used to weight each predictor. Discrimination used the survival Harrel’s C index with 95% CI. Clinical impact was assessed using decision curves.
Results
The mean age was 81.2 ± 6.1 years. Most patients were women and had locally advanced (38%) or metastatic cancers (45%). Colorectal, breast and lung cancers were the most common types. At 6 months, the mortality rate was 17.5%. The score we developed, namely GAIT-SPEED, included five clinical variables: unintentional loss weight of at least 5% of the previous year, slow gait speed < 0.8 m/s, cancer site, cancer extension, and exclusive supportive care decision. We identified 4 increasing risk group (low, medium, high and very-high), ranged from 2% to 61%. The score was well calibrated, and discrimination was good with a Harrel’s C index of 0.75 [0.69-0.81]. Up to 14% of risk of early death, decision curves encourages for a cancer-treatment.
Conclusions
In this study, we developed and validated a simple score easy to implement in daily oncological practice, to predict early death in older cancer patients and guide oncologists in their treatment decision.
Clinical trial identification
Editorial acknowledgement
Legal entity responsible for the study
Frédéric Pamoukdjian.
Funding
Has not received any funding.
Disclosure
All authors have declared no conflicts of interest.
Resources from the same session
681 - Significance of the red blood cell distribution width in resected pathological stage I non-small cell lung cancer
Presenter: Gouji Toyokawa
Session: Poster Display session 1
Resources:
Abstract
3336 - Survival outcome of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients: Comparing results between the database of the Comprehensive Cancer Center Zürich (CCCZ) and the Epidemiological Cancer Registry Zurich and Zug (KKR)
Presenter: Rolf A. Stahel
Session: Poster Display session 1
Resources:
Abstract
2204 - NORA trial (GECP 15/02): Updated results of the Spanish Lung Cancer Group (SLCG) phase II trial of concurrent chemo-radiotherapy (CT-RT) with cisplatin (P) plus metronomic oral vinorelbine (mOV) for unresectable locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (LA-NSCLC)
Presenter: María Guirado
Session: Poster Display session 1
Resources:
Abstract
1446 - A nomogram to predict outcomes of lung cancer patients after pneumonectomy based on 47 indicators set by principle component analysis
Presenter: Bo Cheng
Session: Poster Display session 1
Resources:
Abstract
1788 - Prognostic and predictive value of 18F-PET/CT on the response to treatment in locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC)
Presenter: Cristina Alfaro Autor
Session: Poster Display session 1
Resources:
Abstract
2299 - Comparison of three different chemotherapy regimens for concomitant chemoradiotherapy in locally advanced non small cell lung cancer
Presenter: Abdurrahman Işıkdoğan
Session: Poster Display session 1
Resources:
Abstract
4211 - Predicting the first failure pattern in patients with inoperable local advanced non-small cell lung cancer (LA-NSCLC) receiving definitive chemoradiotherapy: Establishment and internal validation of a nomogram based on the clinicopathological factors
Presenter: Xueru Zhu
Session: Poster Display session 1
Resources:
Abstract
1550 - Prognostic impact of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) pre and post chemoradiotherapy (CRT) in stage III non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC)
Presenter: Vicente Palomar Abril
Session: Poster Display session 1
Resources:
Abstract
2345 - Meta-analysis evaluating neutropenia incidence with EGFR inhibitors and chemotherapy in patients with NSCLC
Presenter: Bernardo Rapoport
Session: Poster Display session 1
Resources:
Abstract
3747 - Effector CD4+ T-cell induction by thoracic radiotherapy for patients with NSCLC
Presenter: Yu Miura
Session: Poster Display session 1
Resources:
Abstract