Abstract 350P
Background
The purpose of this study was to analyze the factors related to the occurrence of bone metastases in prostate cancer and to establish a nomogram for predicting the occurrence of bone metastases. This tool is intended to aid urologists in making early diagnosis and treatment decisions for patients at risk of bone metastases in prostate cancer.
Methods
In this two-center retrospective study, we included 311 newly diagnosed prostate cancer patients from the urology Departments of Zunyi Medical University Affiliated Hospital and Beijing Jishuitan Hospital. The clinical data of 260 patients from Zunyi Medical University Affiliated Hospital were randomly divided into a training cohort (n=184) and an internal validation cohort (Zunyi internal validation cohort, n=76) using a 7:3 ratio with computer-generated random numbers. Univariate analysis, multivariate logistic regression analysis, and Lasso regression analysis were used with the training cohort to determine risk factors for bone metastasis. Based on these factors, a nomogram prediction model was established. The model was validated using an internal validation cohort and an external validation cohort (Beijing external cohort, n=51) to assess its prognostic accuracy. All statistical analyses were performed using R4.2.2 software.
Results
A total of 311 patients were included in the study. Four independent risk factors for bone metastasis in prostate cancer were identified: fPSA (OR=7.34, P=0.0252), ALP (OR=40.34, P=0.0008), N (OR=5.82, P=0.0006), and tPSA. A nomogram was constructed based on these risk factors. The AUC of the nomogram was 0.911. After internal validation, the AUC was 0.885, and external validation showed an AUC of 0.839, indicating good discriminatory ability. The calibration curve demonstrated good consistency, and the decision curve analysis indicated high clinical applicability.
Conclusions
fPSA, ALP, N, and tPSA are independent risk factors for the development of bone metastasis in prostate cancer. The nomogram model based on these factors may have significant value for urologists in the early diagnosis and treatment of patients with bone metastasis in prostate cancer.
Clinical trial identification
Editorial acknowledgement
Legal entity responsible for the study
The authors.
Funding
Has not received any funding.
Disclosure
All authors have declared no conflicts of interest.