526P - Burden and trends of tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer in Southeast Asia, East Asia, and Oceania from 1990-2019, and its projection of deaths to 2040: A benchmarking analysis

Background

Tracheal, Bronchus, and Lung (TBL) cancer is the 1^st leading cause of deaths across Southeast Asia (SEA), East Asia (EA), and Oceania (OC). However, there has been a lack of estimates regarding the burden of TBL cancer across these regions in previous studies.

Methods

Utilizing the Global Burden of Disease Methodology, TBL cancer prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disabiity adjusted life years (DALYs) were analyzed by age, sex, year, across SEA, EA, and OC spanning from 1990-2019. We employed a regression framework to forecast TBL cancer deaths through 2040.

Results

The total prevalence of TBL cancer cases surged by 3.5 times, escalating from 344,251 (95% uncertainty interval: 301,687-388,590) in 1990 to 1,306,745 (1,116,313-1,513,254) in 2019. While deaths rose from 319,128 (282,904-359,206) to 914,442 (791,095-1,049,894) from 1990-2019. In terms of the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), there was an increase from 27.81 (24.65-31.15) to 37.13 (32.08-42.53) per 100,000 person years from 1990-2019. The highest annual percentage of change (APC) was witnessed in deaths, rising by 187%, and in DALYs, increasing by 143% from 1990-2019. Notably, China experienced the highest APC in ASIR (38%), followed by Indonesia (35%), and Taiwan (28%) from 1990-2019. Meanwhile, Indonesia exhibited the highest increase in age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) at 36%, while the Maldives demonstrated the most notable decrease of 33% from 1990-2019. In 2019, individuals aged 65-69 accounted for the highest incidence (172,031), while those aged 70-74 saw the highest mortality (155,538). Moreover, male individuals consistently bore a greater burden than females over the past three decades. Projection indicates that the total number of deaths may reach 1,080,050 (705,751-1,800,670) by 2040.

Conclusions

TBL cancer constituted 26.21% of all deaths within the realm of cancer-related fatalities in SEA, EA, and OC in 2019. This study uncovers a consistent pattern of escalating burden, emphasizing a notable rise in fatalities and its implications for public health, necessitates comprehensive strategies that encompass both individual risk factors and systemic challenges.

Clinical trial identification

Editorial acknowledgement

Legal entity responsible for the study

The authors.

Funding

Has not received any funding.

Disclosure

All authors have declared no conflicts of interest.