Abstract 1580
Background
Brain metastases (BMs) account for a relatively large proportion of patients with metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) both at the time of diagnosis and during the course of disease, which is a major cause leading to a significant increase in cancer-related mortality for NSCLC patients. We aimed to build a novel risk classification system to predict overall survival (OS) of patients presenting with BMs at the first diagnosis of NSCLC.
Methods
Data on NSCLC patients with BMs was extracted from the SEER database between 2010 and 2013. All cases were randomly divided into the training cohort and validation cohort (7:3). Cox regression was performed to select the independent predictors of OS. A nomogram was established for predicting 6-, 12- and 18-month OS. The prognostic performance of nomogram was evaluated using concordance indexes (C-indexes), calibration curves, and decision curve analyses (DCAs). All statistical analysis was performed with R software.
Results
According to the multivariate Cox regression of the training set, the following variables were contained in the nomogram prognostic model: age, marital status, sex, race, primary site, histological type, T stage, N stage, metastatic pattern, whether received radiotherapy and chemotherapy. The nomogram displayed good accuracy in predicting 6, 12 and 18 months OS. The C-indexes of training set and validation set were 0.729 and 0.723, respectively. The calibration curves showed excellent consistency between the actual results and the nomogram prediction, and the DCAs exhibited great clinical utility of the model. A new risk classification system based on nomogram scores was introduced to classify NSCLC patients with BMs into three subgroups. In the training cohort, the median OS of patients in the low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups was 11.0 months (95% confidence interval [CI] 10.3–11.7), 5.0 months (95% CI 4.6–5.4), and 2.0 months (95% CI 1.9–2.1), respectively.
Conclusions
We established a risk stratification system based on nomogram scores to predict the OS of patients presenting with BMs at initial diagnosis of NSCLC. These predictive models can act as auxiliary tools to guide treatment strategies and prognostic evaluation.
Clinical trial identification
Editorial acknowledgement
Legal entity responsible for the study
The authors.
Funding
Has not received any funding.
Disclosure
All authors have declared no conflicts of interest.
Resources from the same session
5152 - Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA) can categorize elderly glioblastoma (GBM) patients into three groups predicting survival: a monoinstitutional study
Presenter: Eleonora Bergo
Session: Poster Display session 1
Resources:
Abstract
4079 - Triggering anti-GBM immune response with EGFR-mediated photoimmunotherapy
Presenter: Gabriela Kramer-marek
Session: Poster Display session 1
Resources:
Abstract
4364 - Upregulation of sFRP3 circulating expression levels correlates survival outcomes in glioblastoma
Presenter: Gema Bruixola
Session: Poster Display session 1
Resources:
Abstract
2327 - Characterization and pre-clinical modeling of genetic aberrations in pediatric gliomas
Presenter: Itai Moshe
Session: Poster Display session 1
Resources:
Abstract
3154 - Preclinical Study of Novel Tetracyclic Small Molecule, CC12, for Brain Cancer
Presenter: Liyun Fann
Session: Poster Display session 1
Resources:
Abstract
5759 - CHLOROBRAIN phase IB trial: The addition of chloroquine, an autophagy inhibitor, to concurrent radiation and temozolomide for newly diagnosed glioblastoma
Presenter: Inge Compter
Session: Poster Display session 1
Resources:
Abstract
1382 - A Phase II Clinical Trial Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of Apatinib Combined with dose-dense Temozolomide in Recurrent Glioblastoma
Presenter: Yong Wang
Session: Poster Display session 1
Resources:
Abstract
4407 - Phase 0 Trial of Ceritinib in Brain Metastases and Recurrent Glioblastoma
Presenter: Shwetal Mehta
Session: Poster Display session 1
Resources:
Abstract
1469 - Pembrolizumab (Pem) in recurrent high-grade glioma (HGG) patients with mismatch repair deficiency (MMRd): an observational study
Presenter: Mario Caccese
Session: Poster Display session 1
Resources:
Abstract
4217 - Outcome of high-grade gliomas (HGGs) treated into immunotherapeutic early-phase clinical trials (ieCTs): a single-center experience
Presenter: Matteo Simonelli
Session: Poster Display session 1
Resources:
Abstract