Abstract 397P
Background
Chronic hepatitis B infection is one of the leading causes of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) worldwide. Despite the endorsement of semi-annual ultrasonography as HCC surveillance method by international societies in at risk population, the accurate prediction of HCC risk is important for public policy strategy in a limited-resource country. Thus, we aim to develop the scoring systems, which are individualized surveillance strategy and cost-effectiveness to assess the risk of HCC in patients with chronic hepatitis B.
Methods
This retrospective cohort study was conducted to develop a risk estimate model of HCC in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. Our prediction model was derived from data obtained in 2,208 CHB patients from Chulabhorn Hospital, Thailand. (Follow-up period: 2011-2017). Forward stepwise multivariable parametric regression model was applied to obtain coefficients for each predictor. Model input included age, sex, liver cirrhosis, cigarette smoking, alcohol consumption, diabetes mellitus, body mass index, serum HBV DNA level, HBeAg status, alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alpha-fetoprotein and AST to platelet ratio index. Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to assess discriminatory accuracy of the model.
Results
During a median follow-up of 6.67 years, 20 cases of HCC were newly diagnosed. Age and liver cirrhosis were statistical significant independent predictors of HCC risk. In the bootstrap simulation (1000 random samplings), the corrected c-index was 0.75 (0.58-0.91). The HCC risk was calculated from the following formula: Age (<50 year = 0; 50-59 year = 1; ≥ 60 year = 2) + Cirrhosis (Yes = 4; No = 0). A 6-point risk score could predict HCC risk at 10 years, ranging from 1.95%, 18.29% and 56.96% in low- (score 0-2), medium- (score 4-5) and high-risk group (score 6).
Conclusions
A simple prediction score constructed from routine clinical and laboratory parameters are accurate in predicting HCC development in Thai patients with CHB infection. Individualized HCC surveillance strategy including surveillance interval and/or alternative surveillance test could be reasonable and cost effectiveness based on our risk scoring. Future prospective validation study is warranted.
Clinical trial identification
Editorial acknowledgement
Legal entity responsible for the study
Teerapat Ungtrakul.
Funding
Chulabhorn Royal Academy.
Disclosure
All authors have declared no conflicts of interest.
Resources from the same session
97P - The role of adjuvant chemotherapy according to the status of surgical margin in rectal cancer
Presenter: Jong Hoon Lee
Session: Poster display session
Resources:
Abstract
98P - Influence of DPYD*9, DPYD*6 and GSTP1 ile105val genetic polymorphisms on capecitabine and oxaliplatin (CAPOX) associated toxicities in colorectal cancer patients
Presenter: Ashok Varma
Session: Poster display session
Resources:
Abstract
99P - Patient-derived tumour model by new culture method leading to the precision medicine
Presenter: Norikatsu Miyoshi
Session: Poster display session
Resources:
Abstract
100P - Clinical impact and carcinogenic mechanism of NCAPG overexpression in colon cancer
Presenter: Kai-Yuan Lin
Session: Poster display session
Resources:
Abstract
101P - Combined cellular immunotherapy and chemotherapy improves clinical outcome and displays safety in the treatment of patients with colorectal cancer
Presenter: Chang Wang
Session: Poster display session
Resources:
Abstract
102P - Clinical features of anorectal cancer in patients with Crohn’s disease: Japanese single center study
Presenter: Kazuhiro Watanabe
Session: Poster display session
Resources:
Abstract
103P - Contrast-enhanced CT-based textural parameters as potential prognostic factors of survival for colorectal cancer patients receiving targeted therapy
Presenter: Yanfei Yang
Session: Poster display session
Resources:
Abstract
104P - Prognostic significance of tumour location to the oncologic outcome of colon cancer
Presenter: Sare Hosseini
Session: Poster display session
Resources:
Abstract
105P - Detection and clinical significance of circulating tumour cells in patients with rectal cancer
Presenter: Shuohui Dong
Session: Poster display session
Resources:
Abstract
106P - The risk of malignization incidence in patients with polyps and polyposis of the colon and rectum
Presenter: Yakov Ten
Session: Poster display session
Resources:
Abstract