Abstract 130P
Background
At the population level, it is useful to estimate the liver cancer risk based on lifestyle factors and regular biomarkers to encourage high-risk people to be screened. Therefore, we conducted the current study to develop a prediction model for the stratification of liver cancer risk among the general population in China.
Methods
112 440 subjects aged 20-80 years from Kailuan Cohort were included in the current study. A total of 326 incident primary liver cancer occurred during 913 078.51 person-years of follow-up. We used the Cox proportional hazards regression model to obtain coefficients for each predictor in the 8-year prediction models among a random two thirds of participants. The prediction models were validated in the remaining one third of participants. Hosmer-Lemeshow’s statistic and Harrell’s C-index were used to evaluate calibration and discrimination, respectively.
Results
A full prediction model that comprised of nine predictors, including age, sex, smoking pack-years, alcohol drinking, tea consumption, diabetes and fasting blood glucose (FBG) level, total cholesterol (TC), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), and hepatitis B virus surface antigen (HBsAg), was derived. The model showed good calibration (χ2=3.57, P = 0.89) and discrimination (Harrell’s C-index=0.85; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.81, 0.88) in the validation data set.
Conclusions
A practical liver prediction model based on accessible indicators combined with lifestyle factors, regular blood biomarkers, and hepatitis virus status was developed, which allows to stratify the risk of liver cancer among the general population. Because the factors in this model are able to be acquired from questionnaire and blood detection, it has great potential to be translated into practical use for public health.
Clinical trial identification
Editorial acknowledgement
Legal entity responsible for the study
The authors.
Funding
National Key R& D Program.
Disclosure
All authors have declared no conflicts of interest.
Resources from the same session
196P - The tolerability and efficacy of FOLFIRINOX in gastro-oesophageal carcinoma
Presenter: Nicholas Travers
Session: Poster display session
Resources:
Abstract
197TiP - GLOW: Zolbetuximab + CAPOX compared with placebo + CAPOX as first-line treatment for patients with Claudin18.2+/HER2– Locally advanced unresectable or metastatic gastric or gastroesophageal junction (GEJ) adenocarcinoma: A randomized phase III study
Presenter: Rui-Hua Xu
Session: Poster display session
Resources:
Abstract
198TiP - SPOTLIGHT: Comparison of zolbetuximab or placebo + mFOLFOX6 as first-line treatment in patients with claudin18.2+/HER2– locally advanced unresectable or metastatic gastric or gastroesophageal junction adenocarcinoma (GEJ): A randomized phase III study
Presenter: Kensei Yamaguchi
Session: Poster display session
Resources:
Abstract
199TiP - Phase III (COSMIC-312) study of cabozantinib (C) in combination with atezolizumab (A) vs sorafenib (S) in patients (pts) with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (aHCC) who have not received previous systemic anticancer therapy
Presenter: Thomas Yau
Session: Poster display session
Resources:
Abstract
200P - Apalutamide (APA) plus androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) for metastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer (mCSPC): Analysis of pain and fatigue in the TITAN study
Presenter: Byung Ha Chung
Session: Poster display session
Resources:
Abstract
201P - Efficacy and safety of darolutamide in non-metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (nmCRPC) in the ARAMIS trial
Presenter: Jacob See-tong Pang
Session: Poster display session
Resources:
Abstract
202P - What is the best first-line therapy for metastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer in 2019? A network meta-analysis
Presenter: Tsz Him So
Session: Poster display session
Resources:
Abstract
203P - Long term outcomes of 2-weekly docetaxel in metastatic high-volume hormone sensitive prostate cancer
Presenter: Suhas Singla
Session: Poster display session
Resources:
Abstract
204P - The effect of radium-223 therapy in agent orange related veterans with metastatic castrate resistance prostate carcinoma (CRPC)
Presenter: Andrew Liman
Session: Poster display session
Resources:
Abstract
205P - Treatment pattern and outcomes of radium-223 (Ra223) in metastatic castration resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC): Retrospective cohort analysis from Hong Kong
Presenter: Darren Poon
Session: Poster display session
Resources:
Abstract