Abstract 1580
Background
Brain metastases (BMs) account for a relatively large proportion of patients with metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) both at the time of diagnosis and during the course of disease, which is a major cause leading to a significant increase in cancer-related mortality for NSCLC patients. We aimed to build a novel risk classification system to predict overall survival (OS) of patients presenting with BMs at the first diagnosis of NSCLC.
Methods
Data on NSCLC patients with BMs was extracted from the SEER database between 2010 and 2013. All cases were randomly divided into the training cohort and validation cohort (7:3). Cox regression was performed to select the independent predictors of OS. A nomogram was established for predicting 6-, 12- and 18-month OS. The prognostic performance of nomogram was evaluated using concordance indexes (C-indexes), calibration curves, and decision curve analyses (DCAs). All statistical analysis was performed with R software.
Results
According to the multivariate Cox regression of the training set, the following variables were contained in the nomogram prognostic model: age, marital status, sex, race, primary site, histological type, T stage, N stage, metastatic pattern, whether received radiotherapy and chemotherapy. The nomogram displayed good accuracy in predicting 6, 12 and 18 months OS. The C-indexes of training set and validation set were 0.729 and 0.723, respectively. The calibration curves showed excellent consistency between the actual results and the nomogram prediction, and the DCAs exhibited great clinical utility of the model. A new risk classification system based on nomogram scores was introduced to classify NSCLC patients with BMs into three subgroups. In the training cohort, the median OS of patients in the low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups was 11.0 months (95% confidence interval [CI] 10.3–11.7), 5.0 months (95% CI 4.6–5.4), and 2.0 months (95% CI 1.9–2.1), respectively.
Conclusions
We established a risk stratification system based on nomogram scores to predict the OS of patients presenting with BMs at initial diagnosis of NSCLC. These predictive models can act as auxiliary tools to guide treatment strategies and prognostic evaluation.
Clinical trial identification
Editorial acknowledgement
Legal entity responsible for the study
The authors.
Funding
Has not received any funding.
Disclosure
All authors have declared no conflicts of interest.
Resources from the same session
4369 - Biomarker testing of lung cancer in Spain
Presenter: Delvys Rodriguez Abreu
Session: Poster Display session 1
Resources:
Abstract
603 - Mendelian Randomization Study of Alzheimer's Disease and Lung Cancer
Presenter: Huaqiang Zhou
Session: Poster Display session 1
Resources:
Abstract
4462 - Spanish registry of thoracic tumors (TTR): Interim analyses of comorbidities, risk associations, personal and family history of cancer
Presenter: Rafael Lopez Castro
Session: Poster Display session 1
Resources:
Abstract
3957 - Pleural effusion TGF-beta is highly diagnostic and prognostic in malignant pleural mesothelioma
Presenter: Paul Stockhammer
Session: Poster Display session 1
Resources:
Abstract
3583 - Immune microenvironment modulation by p14/ARF in Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma
Presenter: Giulia Pasello
Session: Poster Display session 1
Resources:
Abstract
4255 - Tumor Treating Fields plus chemotherapy for first-line malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM): radiological responses in the STELLAR trial
Presenter: Federica Grosso
Session: Poster Display session 1
Resources:
Abstract
1803 - Effects of Tumor Treating Fields (TTFields; 150 kHz) and Cisplatin or Pemetrexed Combination Therapy on Mesothelioma cells In Vitro and In Vivo
Presenter: Mijal Munster
Session: Poster Display session 1
Resources:
Abstract
2660 - Real world use of systemic therapy in elderly patients with malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM)
Presenter: Susana Cedres
Session: Poster Display session 1
Resources:
Abstract
3150 - Pemetrexed/Cisplatin versus Gemcitabine/Cisplatin as first-line treatment for Egyptian patients with malignant pleural mesothelioma
Presenter: Mohamed Alorabi
Session: Poster Display session 1
Resources:
Abstract
4319 - Accuracy of pathologic evaluation for thymic epithelial tumors in an Italian reference Centre
Presenter: Giulia Galli
Session: Poster Display session 1
Resources:
Abstract