Oops, you're using an old version of your browser so some of the features on this page may not be displaying properly.

MINIMAL Requirements: Google Chrome 24+Mozilla Firefox 20+Internet Explorer 11Opera 15–18Apple Safari 7SeaMonkey 2.15-2.23

The predictive value of NHS PREDICT for triple negative breast cancer


03 May 2019


Poster lunch


Monika Sobocan


Annals of Oncology (2019) 30 (suppl_3): iii65-iii71. 10.1093/annonc/mdz101


M. Sobocan1, U. Belak2, N. Sikošek Čas1, N. Kozar2, K.K. Krajnc1, I. Takac1, D. Arko1

Author affiliations

  • 1 Clinic Of Gynecology And Perinatology, University Medical Center Maribor, 2000 - Maribor/SI
  • 2 Clinic Of Gynecology And Perinatology, University Medical Center Maribor, Maribor/SI



Tools to support clinical decision making regarding breast cancer (BC) are becoming more available to clinicians. NHS PREDICT is a freely available web-based tool for prognostication and assistance in BC management. Recent research shows doubt in using the tool for BC subtypes. There is fear over the possibility of over- or undertreatment of patients.


Ninety-four patients regardless of their ER (estrogen receptor), PR (progesterone receptor) and HER2 (human epidermal growth factor receptor 2) status were included in this study. Through using the platform NHS PREDICT 2.0 we evaluated through the pilot study the prediction of patients with newly diagnosed breast cancer. We evaluated the prediction of 10-year survival, benefit of surgical treatment, treatment with hormonal therapy, transtuzumab treatment and benefit of chemotherapy.


The median age at diagnosis was 60.10 years (SD 14.4). Patients were classified according to hormonal status: i) ER+ BC (n = 69), ii) ER+ and HER2+ BC (n = 8), iii) ER-, but HER2+ BC (n = 7) and iv) triple negative BC (n = 10). Overall 10-year survival for ER+, HER2- was 86.1 % (benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy adding 2.8 %), for ER- and HER2+ 83.7% (benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy adding 7.0 %) and for TNBC 77.4% (benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy 5.5 %). Overall data is represented in Table.


This pilot analysis estimates that overall survival was in accordance to available treatment data. TNBC 10-year survival was appropriate (decreased), but the tool estimated very low chemotherapy benefits for TNBC patients in comparison to other patient groups thus posing the risk of patient undertreatment.

Editorial acknowledgement

Clinical trial identification

Legal entity responsible for the study

The University Medical Center Maribor.


Supported through the Slovenian Research Agency Project (J3-9272).


All authors have declared no conflicts of interest.

Table: 216P

Predict output on breast cancer subtypes

Breast cancer subtypes10-year age adjusted overall survivalMean age at time of diagnosisBenefit of surgical treatment on survivalBenefit of hormonal therapy on survivalBenefit of chemotherapy on survivalBenefit of transtuzumab on survival
ER+, PR+, Her2- (n = 69)86.1 (SD 15.1)58.7 (SD 13.2)73.32 (SD 16.3)3.71 (SD 2.8)2.8 (SD 2.1)/
ER+, PR+, Her2 + (n = 8)88.9 (SD 11.0)57.6 (SD 12.1)64.9 (SD 20.9)6.5 (SD 3.7)4.7 (SD 2.8)3.6 (SD 2.1)
ER-, PR-, Her2 + (n = 7)83.7 (SD 18.4)56.3 (SD 19.9)50.9 (SD 23.5)/7.0 (SD 1.7)7.0 (SD 2.0)
ER-, PR-, Her2- (n = 10)77.4 (SD 21.8)62.5 (SD 17.7)52.9 (SD 23.2)/5.5 (SD 2.4)/

Resources from the same session

This site uses cookies. Some of these cookies are essential, while others help us improve your experience by providing insights into how the site is being used.

For more detailed information on the cookies we use, please check our Privacy Policy.

Customise settings