190 - A reliable nomogram for predicting overall survival in patients with triple-negative breast cancer

Background

Currently, there is no reliable nomogram to predict overall survival (OS) for patients with triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). The purpose of this study was to develop a prognostic nomogram from a cohort of TNBC patients by correlating clinical characteristics and pathological parameters with OS.

Methods

We retrospectively analysed 242 eligible TNBC patients treated between 2009 and 2012 at our institution. Age, family history, menopause status, operative type, tumour size, tumour histological grade, the number of axillary metastatic lymph node, postoperative pathological TNM stage, vascular invasion, perineural invasion, CK5/6 expression status, Ki67 index, and E-cadherin expression status were analysed. Predictors were used in a multivariable logistic regression analysis to develop a nomogram that predicts OS. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were determined by the concordance index (C-index) with calibration curves, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, respectively. Analyses were performed with SPSS and R statistical software packages.

Results

The median follow-up time was 70.73 months (range, 7.20–95.93 months) and the median age was 51 years (range, 29–69 years). Of the study patients, 32.6%, 42.6%, and 24.8% had disease stage I, II, III, respectively. The 3- and 5-year OS for all patients were 86.5% (95% CI, 82.2–90.8%) and 81.1% (95% CI, 76.2–86.0%), respectively. Multivariate analyses demonstrated that age, tumour size, the number of axillary metastatic lymph nodes, and E-cadherin expression were independent risk factors for OS. These predictors were used in the nomogram to estimate the 3- and 5-year OS. Calibration curves for probabilities showed good agreement between prediction by the nomogram and actual observation (C-index = 0.821).

Conclusions

Using clinicopathological information, we produced a prognostic nomogram that accurately predicts the 3- and 5-year OS for patients with TNBC.

Editorial acknowledgement

Clinical trial identification

Legal entity responsible for the study

Xian-shu Gao.

Funding

Has not received any funding.

Disclosure

All authors have declared no conflicts of interest.