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Poster display session: Basic science, Endocrine tumours, Gastrointestinal tumours - colorectal & non-colorectal, Head and neck cancer (excluding thyroid), Melanoma and other skin tumours, Neuroendocrine tumours, Thyroid cancer, Tumour biology & pathology

3437 - Development of overall survival (OS) and progression free survival (PFS) nomograms for Australian patients with locoregionally advanced oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (LA OPSCC)

Date

21 Oct 2018

Session

Poster display session: Basic science, Endocrine tumours, Gastrointestinal tumours - colorectal & non-colorectal, Head and neck cancer (excluding thyroid), Melanoma and other skin tumours, Neuroendocrine tumours, Thyroid cancer, Tumour biology & pathology

Topics

Tumour Site

Head and Neck Cancers

Presenters

Kay Xu

Citation

Annals of Oncology (2018) 29 (suppl_8): viii372-viii399. 10.1093/annonc/mdy287

Authors

K. Xu1, A. Lo2, V. Chin1, C. Gzell3, C. O'Connor3, D. Forstner3, R. Gallagher1, R. Bova1, J. Crawford1, R. Harvey1, A. Lochhead4, P. Earls4, M.R. Qiu4, E. Hsu5, G. Bigg-Wither5, L. Chan6, H. Bao6, P. Foltyn7, H. Sim1, A. Prawira1

Author affiliations

  • 1 Medical Oncology, The Kinghorn Cancer Centre, 2010 - Darlinghurst/AU
  • 2 School Of Medicine, The University of New South Wales, 2052 - Sydney/AU
  • 3 Radiation oncology, Genesis Cancer Care, 2010 - Darlinghurst/AU
  • 4 Anatomical Pathology, St Vincent's Pathology, 2010 - Darlinghurst/AU
  • 5 Medical Imaging, St Vincent's Hospital, 2010 - Darlinghurst/AU
  • 6 Nuclear Medicine, St Vincent's Hospital, 2010 - Darlinghurst/AU
  • 7 Oral Health And Dentistry, St Vincent's Hospital, 2010 - Darlinghurst/AU
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Resources

Abstract 3437

Background

The majority of patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck present with locally advanced disease. Despite treatment with curative intent, approximately 40% of patients eventually relapse. It is currently difficult to predict those who will relapse at treatment outset. Nomograms can improve prognostic discussions for individual patients and potentially guide future research to individualise treatment. We aim to develop OS and PFS nomograms using retrospective data from patients with LA OPSCC treated in our institution.

Methods

We performed a retrospective analysis of baseline characteristics and outcomes of LA OPSCC patients who underwent curative-intent treatment in our institution from January 2008 to December 2017. Nomograms were constructed to estimate OS and PFS incorporating age, gender, performance status, smoking history, stage, grade, and p16 status. Multivariable Cox models were selected by backward elimination using the Akaike information criterion, and validated internally using bootstrap with 1000 resamples. Nomogram points were assigned proportional to variable effect size.

Results

A total of 417 patients have been identified so far. An initial cohort of 74 patients with complete clinical annotations were analysed. Median follow-up was 24 months, with 9 deaths and 25 events during follow-up. ECOG 0, N stage 0-1, histological grade 1-2 and p16 positive status were favourable predictors in the OS nomogram. Age ≤ 50, male gender, smoking history ≤ 10 pack-years and p16 positive status were favourable predictors in the PFS nomogram. The concordance index for OS was 0.86 (95% CI 0.76 to 0.99) and for PFS was 0.72 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.83). Bias-corrected indices were 0.82 and 0.69, respectively.

Conclusions

We present the first OS and PFS nomograms for Australian patients with LA OPSCC. The nomograms demonstrated clinically useful prediction of OS and PFS in patients with LA OPSCC, relying on four routinely collected variables, with superior concordance to previously reported models. Expansion of the retrospective cohort is ongoing and validation in an external patient cohort is planned.

Clinical trial identification

Legal entity responsible for the study

St Vincent's Hospital, Sydney.

Funding

Has not received any funding.

Editorial Acknowledgement

Disclosure

All authors have declared no conflicts of interest.

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