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Poster display session

5153 - Prediction of survival with durvalumab in locally advanced or metastatic NSCLC using early tumor assessments


09 Sep 2017


Poster display session


Cancers in Adolescents and Young Adults (AYA);  Immunotherapy;  Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer


Xuekui Zhang


Annals of Oncology (2017) 28 (suppl_5): v460-v496. 10.1093/annonc/mdx380


X. Zhang1, K. Park2, N. Rizvi3, P.A. Dennis4, R. Narwal5, Y. Huang6, R. Arani7, P. Mukhopadhyay7

Author affiliations

  • 1 Immuno-oncology Gmd, AstraZeneca, 20878 - Gaithersburg/US
  • 2 Division Of Hematology/oncology, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul/KR
  • 3 Department Of Medicine, Columbia University Medical Center, New York/US
  • 4 Global Medicines Development, AstraZeneca USA, 20878 - Gaithersburg/US
  • 5 Clinical Pharmacology, Pharmacometrics, & Dmpk (cpd), MedImmune, Gaithersburg/US
  • 6 Gmd Oncology B&i, AstraZeneca, 20878 - Gaithersburg/US
  • 7 Biometrics & Information Sciences, AstraZeneca, Gaithersburg/US


Abstract 5153


The analysis objective was to assess if limited tumor assessments can predict long-term overall survival (OS) in patients (pts) with locally advanced or metastatic (Stage IIIB-IV) non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with durvalumab.


We used data from a Phase II, non-comparative, open-label multicenter study of durvalumab in NSCLC pts with ≥2 prior systemic treatment regimens, including 1 platinum-based (ATLANTIC). Per exploratory analysis, the first 2 post-baseline assessments were used to develop the model. Using an elastic net statistical method, combined with cross validation, we identified important baseline variables, built a scoring system (defined as 0.28*sex + 0.188*histology group + 0.034*smoker group – 0.176*line of therapy – 0.041*tumor assessment) in which assessments are represented as a single variable (interpreted as a weighted average), and identified the optimal score thresholds to segment pts into 2 groups (‘good’ vs. ‘bad’) with significant differences in long-term OS.


As of June 3, 2016, 444 pts had received treatment; 191 from cohort 2 (EGFR/ALK wild-type pts) with sufficient assessments (baseline and ≥1 follow-up) were used to develop the model. Median age was 64.0 years, 61.8% had WHO PS 1, 18.8% had squamous histology, mean number of prior anticancer regimens was 4.0, and 83.7% were current/ex-smokers; PD-L1 expression was high (≥25% of tumor cells stained) in 57.1%, low/negative in 35.6%, and unknown in 7.3%. OS results are summarized in the table. The model was validated using data from a Phase I/II open-label trial of durvalumab (1108).Table:


ATLANTIC (model building)Study 1108 (validation)
Bad GroupGood GroupBad GroupGood Group
(n = 157)(n = 34)(n = 117)(n = 58)
Median OS (95% CI), days340NE265739
(292, 403)(557, NE)(194, 315)(616, NE)
6-month OS rate (95% CI)0.7420.9410.6050.937
(0.665, 0.804)(0.785, 0.985)(0.517, 0.682)(0.855, 0.973)
1-year OS rate (95% CI)0.4780.8820.3710.819
(0.397, 0.554)(0.716, 0.954)(0.282, 0.460)(0.708, 0.891)
HR [Good vs. Bad] (95% CI)0.2059 (0.0569, 0.4437)0.2637 (0.1661, 0.4187)

NE, not estimable


We developed an algorithm based on baseline characteristics and tumor assessments to segment NSCLC pts treated with durvalumab into 2 groups with distinct OS. The scoring system was independently validated. However, the predictive versus prognostic value of this algorithm needs further evaluation using data from randomized trials.

Clinical trial identification

NCT02087423 (release date: March 4, 2014)

Legal entity responsible for the study

AstraZeneca PLC




X. Zhang: Full time employee of AstraZeneca. K. Park: Consulting: Astellas, AZ, Boehringer Ingelheim, Clovis, Lilly, Hanmi, Kyowa Hakko Kirin, Novartis, Ono Pharma. Speaker Bureau: Boehringer Ingelheim, Research funding: AZ. N.A. Rizvi: Advisory Board: Merck, AZ, Roche, BMS, Novartis, Pfizer, Lilly, Novartis, Abbvie Co-founder and shareholder: Gritstone Oncology Scientific Advisory Board: Nilogen Oncosystems. P.A. Dennis, Y. Huang, P. Mukhopadhyay: Employee and shareholder AstraZeneca. R. Narwal: Employee and shareholder MedImmune. R. Arani: Employee B&I, AstraZeneca, Shareholder AstraZeneca.

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