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Poster display

2322 - Nomogram-based prediction of overall survival (OS) of patients (pts) with metastatic urothelial carcinoma (UC) receiving first-line platinum-based chemotherapy: retrospective international study of invasive/advanced cancer of the urothelium (RISC)


09 Oct 2016


Poster display


Andrea Necchi


Annals of Oncology (2016) 27 (6): 266-295. 10.1093/annonc/mdw373


A. Necchi1, G. Sonpavde2, S. Lo Vullo3, A. Bamias4, S.J. Crabb5, L. Harshman6, J. Bellmunt7, U. De Giorgi8, C. Sternberg9, S. Ladoire10, Y. Wong11, E.Y. Yu12, S. Chowdhury13, G. Niegisch14, S. Srinivas15, U. Vaishampayan16, S.K. Pal17, J. Rosenberg18, L. Mariani3, M.D. Galsky19

Author affiliations

  • 1 Medical Oncology, Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale dei Tumori, 20133 - Milan/IT
  • 2 Medical Oncology, University of Alabama at Birmingham Hospital, 35294-3280 - Birmingham/US
  • 3 Clinical Epidemiology And Trials Organization Unit, Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale dei Tumori, 20133 - Milan/IT
  • 4 Clinical Therapeutics, University of Athens, 115 28 - Athens/GR
  • 5 Medical Oncology, University of Southampton, Southampton/GB
  • 6 Medical Oncology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston/US
  • 7 Bladder Cancer Center, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, MA/US
  • 8 Medical Oncology, Istituto Tumori della Romagna I.R.S.T., Meldola/IT
  • 9 Oncology, San Camillo–Forlanini Hospital, 00152 - Rome/IT
  • 10 Medical Oncology, Centre Georges-François Leclerc (Dijon), Dijon/FR
  • 11 Medical Oncology, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia/US
  • 12 Medical Oncology, Univ. Washington/VAPSHCS, Seattle/US
  • 13 Oncology, Guy's and St. Thomas' Hospital NHS Trust, SE1 9RT - London/GB
  • 14 Medical Oncology, Univesitätsklinikum Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf/DE
  • 15 Medical Oncology, Stanford University Medical Center, Stanford/US
  • 16 Medical Oncology, Karmanos Cancer Institute, Detroit/US
  • 17 Medical Oncology And Experimental Therapuetics, City of Hope, 91010 - Duarte/US
  • 18 Medical Oncology, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York/US
  • 19 Tisch Cancer Institute, Mount Sinai School of Medicine, New York/US


Abstract 2322


The available prognostic models of OS for pts with metastatic UC were derived from clinical trial populations of cisplatin-treated pts only. We aimed to develop a new model based on ‘real world’ pts.


Individual pt-level data from 29 centers was collected. Pts had to be treated for metastatic UC at the participating sites between 01/2006 and 01/2011. Selection criteria included metastatic UC, and first-line cisplatin- or carboplatin-based chemotherapy. The overall sample was randomly split into a development and a validation cohort. Generalized Boosted Regression Modeling was used first to exclude variables not associated with OS. Backward variable selection was then undertaken. Platinum-type was incorporated in the analysis as a stratification factor. Two nomograms were built to estimate OS probability, the first based on baseline factors and the second incorporating objective response (OR). The performance of the present nomogram and that of the other available models was assessed for accuracy (Brier score), calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test), and discrimination (Harrell c-index).


1,020 pts were analyzed (development: 687; validation: 333). In the platinum-stratified Cox model, significant variables for OS were: performance status (p 


We developed and validated two nomograms that accounted for novel prognostic factors and can be used before and after completion of chemotherapy, respectively. These two nomograms may be suitable tools to enhance patient stratification and inform pts in the clinic.

Clinical trial identification


Legal entity responsible for the study

Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale dei Tumori


Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale dei Tumori


All authors have declared no conflicts of interest.

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