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Poster display

3266 - An end of life prognostic score for patients with metastatic prostate cancer receiving palliative radiotherapy


09 Oct 2016


Poster display


John Donaghy


Annals of Oncology (2016) 27 (6): 455-461. 10.1093/annonc/mdw384


J. Donaghy1, A. Lopes2, M. Ali1, R. Davda1, J. Mascoll1, J. Forgenie1, S. Howard1, U. McGovern1, H. Payne3, A. Mitra1, M. Linch3

Author affiliations

  • 1 Oncology, University College London Hospital, N1 2BU - London/GB
  • 2 Oncology, Cancer Research UK & University College London Cancer Trials Centre, London/GB
  • 3 Oncology, UCL/UCLH NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, N1 2BU - London/GB


Abstract 3266


Radiotherapy can provide symptomatic relief in the palliative

management of patients with metastatic prostate cancer (mPC) however this would not usually be offered to those patients with a prognosis of less than three months. This study aims to determine the predictive value of a set of routinely collected parameters with respect to prognosis in these patients.


A retrospective analysis of 101 patients with metastatic prostate

cancer who received palliative radiotherapy between 2009 and 2012 was

performed. The variables measured were haemoglobin (Hb;g/dl), age (years), prostate-specific antigen (PSA;ng/ml), PSA doubling time (months),

neutrophil:lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and albumin (g/L). Each variable was

measured within the 3 months preceding radiotherapy. The dataset was split randomly into a training set (n = 59) and a validation set (n = 29). Overall survival univariate cox models were performed in the training set using each of the variables above. Those variables with a p-value 


Hb, age, NLR ratio and albumin were associated with survival in the

training set. The multivariate cox model identified that high Hb values (HR: 0.90 [95%CI: 0.72; 1.11]) and albumin values (0.89 [95%CI: 0.83; 0.95]) were associated with decreased risk of death and increase in age (1.04 [95%CI: 1.00; 1.08]) and NLR (1.02 [95%CI: 0.92; 1.12]) were associated with higher risk of death. A prognostic score nomogram was derived from this model with a prognostic performance, measured using area under ROC curve, of 86% (95%CI 73%; 100%).


This prognostic score allows for accurate prediction of survival in patients with mPC and could be a valuable tool to assist routine clinical decisions surrounding radiotherapy, chemotherapy and enrollment in clinical trials with respect to the end-of-life setting.

Clinical trial identification

Not applicable.

Legal entity responsible for the study

University College London Hospitals


UCL/UCLH-NIHR Biomedical Research Centre. M.L is also supported by Cancer Research UK and Prostate Cancer Foundation.


H. Payne: Educational grants from Astellas and Jansen. M. Linch: Educational and research grants from Bayer, Sanofi, BMS. All other authors have declared no conflicts of interest.

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