632 - Epidemiology projection trends for metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients receiving second line (2L) therapy in EU and US

Date 28 September 2012
Event ESMO Congress 2012
Session Publication Only
Topics Aetiology, Epidemiology, Screening and Prevention
Colon and Rectal Cancer
Basic Scientific Principles
Presenter Odile Moulard
Authors O. Moulard1, J. Mehta2, S. Naoshy2, R. Olivares1, S.U. Iqbal2, I. Chau3
  • 1Evidence And Value Development, Sanofi, 91385 - Chilly Mazarin/FR
  • 2Evidence And Value Development, Sanofi, 02142 - Cambridge/US
  • 3Medicine, Royal Marsden Hospital, SM2 5PT - Sutton/UK



Worldwide, CRC is the third most common cancer in men (663,000 cases, 10% of the total) and second in women (571,000 cases, 9.4% of the total) (IARC 2008). Due to demographic expansion and an ageing population, the annual number of newly diagnosed and treated CRC cases is expected to increase in Western countries. Hence, epidemiology projection estimates by line of therapy are needed to support clinical, economic and resource planning.


Epidemiological data was obtained using the CancerMPact® database (accessed Oct 2011), which includes line of therapy estimations through the US National Oncology Data Alliance and survey of a representative physician sample. Data was grouped by stage at diagnosis and stage IV refers to metastatic patients.


From 2010-2020, the distribution of mCRC patients receiving 2L differs by country in EU. The highest number of treated patients is in Germany, followed by Italy and UK. Among all treated mCRC patients, about 42% of patients in EU and 45% of patients in US will go on to 2L. By 2020, the percentage of patients receiving 1L and 2L will increase by about 15% across US and EU. Over a 10 year period, the number of treated patients for each line of therapy will increase by 19%, 11%, 15%, 20%, and 14% for France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK, respectively. The table below refers to the number of metastatic patients by line of therapy.


Despite improvement in survival rates, approximately half of patients in US and EU who receive 1L go on to 2L. In addition to survey data, real world data and disease based registries can help validate these projection estimates. The projected increase in mCRC patients by 10-20% across the EU has implications for disease management and health resource planning in oncology.

Table: 632

Year Line Number of patients
France Germany Italy Spain UK EU 5 US
2010 1L 13705 25590 18171 9590 16646 83702 40484
2L 8212 15378 10904 5746 9988 50228 27217
3L 3117 5846 4125 2177 3792 19057 14602
4L+ 695 1296 868 474 840 4173 5429
Total stage IV* 19344 36313 25408 13432 23372 117869 60703
2020 1L 16273 28410 20956 11533 19060 96232 47447
2L 9755 17048 12592 6916 11434 57745 31672
3L 3704 6476 4767 2622 4341 21910 16999
4L+ 825 1439 1002 571 961 4798 6324
Total stage IV* 22947 39931 29361 16194 26733 135166 69391

* a patient may receive multiple lines of therapy in a given year Source: CancerMPact® Kantar Health (www.cancermpact.com)


O. Moulard: I am an employee of Sanofi.

J. Mehta: I am an employee of Sanofi.

S. Naoshy: I am an employee of Sanofi.

R. Olivares: I am an employee of Sanofi.

S.U. Iqbal: I am an employee of Sanofi.

All other authors have declared no conflicts of interest.