797P - Nomogram-based prediction of overall survival (OS) of patients (pts) with metastatic urothelial carcinoma (UC) receiving first-line platinum-based...

Date 09 October 2016
Event ESMO 2016 Congress
Session Poster display
Topics Urothelial Cancers
Presenter Andrea Necchi
Citation Annals of Oncology (2016) 27 (6): 266-295. 10.1093/annonc/mdw373
Authors A. Necchi1, G. Sonpavde2, S. Lo Vullo3, A. Bamias4, S.J. Crabb5, L. Harshman6, J. Bellmunt7, U. De Giorgi8, C. Sternberg9, S. Ladoire10, Y. Wong11, E.Y. Yu12, S. Chowdhury13, G. Niegisch14, S. Srinivas15, U. Vaishampayan16, S.K. Pal17, J. Rosenberg18, L. Mariani3, M.D. Galsky19
  • 1Medical Oncology, Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale dei Tumori, 20133 - Milan/IT
  • 2Medical Oncology, University of Alabama at Birmingham Hospital, 35294-3280 - Birmingham/US
  • 3Clinical Epidemiology And Trials Organization Unit, Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale dei Tumori, 20133 - Milan/IT
  • 4Clinical Therapeutics, University of Athens, 115 28 - Athens/GR
  • 5Medical Oncology, University of Southampton, Southampton/GB
  • 6Medical Oncology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston/US
  • 7Bladder Cancer Center, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, MA/US
  • 8Medical Oncology, Istituto Tumori della Romagna I.R.S.T., Meldola/IT
  • 9Oncology, San Camillo–Forlanini Hospital, 00152 - Rome/IT
  • 10Medical Oncology, Centre Georges-François Leclerc (Dijon), Dijon/FR
  • 11Medical Oncology, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia/US
  • 12Medical Oncology, Univ. Washington/VAPSHCS, Seattle/US
  • 13Oncology, Guy's and St. Thomas' Hospital NHS Trust, SE1 9RT - London/GB
  • 14Medical Oncology, Univesitätsklinikum Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf/DE
  • 15Medical Oncology, Stanford University Medical Center, Stanford/US
  • 16Medical Oncology, Karmanos Cancer Institute, Detroit/US
  • 17Medical Oncology And Experimental Therapuetics, City of Hope, 91010 - Duarte/US
  • 18Medical Oncology, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York/US
  • 19Tisch Cancer Institute, Mount Sinai School of Medicine, New York/US



The available prognostic models of OS for pts with metastatic UC were derived from clinical trial populations of cisplatin-treated pts only. We aimed to develop a new model based on ‘real world’ pts.


Individual pt-level data from 29 centers was collected. Pts had to be treated for metastatic UC at the participating sites between 01/2006 and 01/2011. Selection criteria included metastatic UC, and first-line cisplatin- or carboplatin-based chemotherapy. The overall sample was randomly split into a development and a validation cohort. Generalized Boosted Regression Modeling was used first to exclude variables not associated with OS. Backward variable selection was then undertaken. Platinum-type was incorporated in the analysis as a stratification factor. Two nomograms were built to estimate OS probability, the first based on baseline factors and the second incorporating objective response (OR). The performance of the present nomogram and that of the other available models was assessed for accuracy (Brier score), calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test), and discrimination (Harrell c-index).


1,020 pts were analyzed (development: 687; validation: 333). In the platinum-stratified Cox model, significant variables for OS were: performance status (p 


We developed and validated two nomograms that accounted for novel prognostic factors and can be used before and after completion of chemotherapy, respectively. These two nomograms may be suitable tools to enhance patient stratification and inform pts in the clinic.

Clinical trial identification


Legal entity responsible for the study

Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale dei Tumori


Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale dei Tumori


All authors have declared no conflicts of interest.