1480P - A risk assessment model for predicting venous thromboembolic events in chemotherapy-treated germ-cell cancer

Date 09 October 2016
Event ESMO 2016 Congress
Session Poster display
Topics Supportive Measures
Presenter M. Isabel Luengo
Citation Annals of Oncology (2016) 27 (6): 497-521. 10.1093/annonc/mdw390
Authors M..I. Luengo1, D. Hervás2, N. Sobrevilla3, X. Garcia del Muro4, J. Guma I Padro5, D. Castellano6, J. Aparicio7, A. Sánchez Muñoz8, E. Buxo9, A. Saenz10, J.L. Aguilar3, C. Valverde Morales11, A. Fernández Aramburu12, P. Maroto13, M. Espinosa14, P. Jimenez Fonseca15, S. Ros16, M. Margeli4, J. Sastre17, E. Gonzalez-Billalabeitia18
  • 1Hematology And Clinical Oncology, Hospital Universitario Morales Meseguer, 30008 - Murcia/ES
  • 2Bioestadística, Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria La Fe, 30008 - Valencia/ES
  • 3Medical Oncology, Instituto Nacional de Cancerología (INCAN), MEXICO/MX
  • 4Medical Oncology, Institut Català d'Oncologia Hospital Duran i Reynals, Barcelona/ES
  • 5Oncology Service, University Hospital St. Joan de Reus, 43204 - Reus/ES
  • 6Medical Oncology, University Hospital 12 De Octubre, Madrid/ES
  • 7Medical Oncology, Hospital Universitari i Politècnic La Fe, 46026 - Valencia/ES
  • 8Servicio De Oncología Médica, Hospital Universitario Virgen de la Victoria, Malaga/ES
  • 9Medical Oncology, Hospital Clinic y Provincial de Barcelona, Barcelona/ES
  • 10Clinical Oncology, Hospital Clinico Universitario Lozano Blesa, 50009 - Zaragoza/ES
  • 11Oncologia Médica, Vall d`Hebron University Hospital Institut d'Oncologia, 08035 - Barcelona/ES
  • 12Clinical Oncology, Complejo Hospitalario Universitario de Albacete, Albacete/ES
  • 13Dept. Of Medical Oncology, Hospital de la Santa Creu i Sant Pau, 08026 - Barcelona/ES
  • 14Clinical Oncology, Hospital Universitario Virgen del Rocio, 41013 - Sevilla/ES
  • 15Medical Oncology, Hospital Universitario Central de Asturias, 33011 - Oviedo/ES
  • 16Clinical Oncology, Hospital Universitario Virgen de la Arrixaca, Murcia/ES
  • 17Oncology Department, Clínico San Carlos Hospital, Madrid/ES
  • 18Hematology And Clinical Oncology, Hospital Universitario Morales Meseguer, 30007 - Murcia/ES



Germ-cell cancer patients (GCC) treated with chemotherapy are at high risk of developing venous thromboembolic events (VTE). Several single parameters have been proposed for risk prediction, but no risk assessment model (RAM) is currently available.


All previously reported variables related with venous thrombosis in GCC were included. The association of these predictors with the development of VTEs was assessed using an Elastic Net penalized logistic regression model. The selection of the penalization factor lambda for the Elastic Net analysis was performed using 10-fold cross-validation. The adjusted model was validated using an external and independent cohort. As a measure of performance of the model the AUC (area under ROC curve) was used. The training dataset consisted of all consecutive chemotherapy-treated GCC patients recruited by 13 hospitals in the Spanish Germ-Cell Cancer Group (SGCCG) registry between 2004 and 2014. The validating dataset consisted of an external and independent cohort of patients treated at 4 independent hospitals.


The training subset included 513 patients, with a VTE rate of 9% (N = 44). Our penalized logistic regression model included 4 predictors: Large retroperitoneal mass (N3), presence of liver, bone or brain metastasis (LBB), IGCCC poor prognosis (IGCCCPoor) and haemoglobin basal level (HBB), which were able to predict the probability of an event following the equation: P(event) = e − 2.33 +0.16*N3+0.27*LBB+0.19*ICCCCPoor-0.003*HBB/(1 + e − 2.33+0.16*N3+ 0.27*LBB+0.19*ICCCCPoor - 0.003*HBB). This model resulted in an area under the ROC curve of 0.83 (95% CI: 0.76-0.90). The validation subset included 325 patients with a VTE rate of 13% (N = 42). The area under the curve in the validation sample was 0.73 (95% CI, 0.65, 0.83).


We report a risk assessment model able to predict the probability of VTE in chemotherapy-treated GCC. This model may guide patient selection in studies of thromboprophylaxis in this population.

Clinical trial identification

Legal entity responsible for the study

Spanish Germ Cell Cancer Group


Spanish Germ Cell Cancer Group


All authors have declared no conflicts of interest.