198PD - Nomogram for predicting overall survival after stereotactic body radiotherapy for pulmonary metastases: Development and external validation

Date 14 April 2016
Event European Lung Cancer Conference 2016 (ELCC) 2016
Session Predictive models for chemo- and radiotherapy
Topics Thoracic Malignancies
Surgical Oncology
Radiation Oncology
Presenter Matthias Guckenberger
Citation Journal of Thoracic Oncology (2016) 11 (supplement 4): S57-S166. S1556-0864(16)X0004-4
Authors M. Guckenberger1, S. Lang2, M. Hoyer3, M.M. Fode3, J. Rieber4, F. Sterzing4
  • 1Department For Radiation Oncology, Universitätsspital Zürich, 8091 - Zürich/CH
  • 2Department For Radiation Oncology, Universitätsspital Zürich, Zürich/CH
  • 3Department Of Oncology, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus C/DK
  • 4Department Of Radiation Oncology, University Hospital Heidelberg, Heidelberg/DE



Radical treatment of pulmonary metastases is practiced with increasing frequency since the better recognition and understanding of oligo-metastatic disease. However, patient selection remains challenging with long-term overall survival (OS) in


A multi-institutional database (n = 23; DEGRO Working Group Stereotaxy) of 671 patients treated with SBRT for 964 pulmonary metastases was used as a training cohort. Cox regression analysis with backward selection of variables (Akaike information criteria) was performed to identify factors to be included in the model to predict 2-year OS after SBRT. Based on this model a nomogram was constructed, calibrated and validated using concordance-index statistics. The nomogram was externally validated using a monocentric database of 92 patients treated with SBRT for pulmonary metastases (University Hospital Aarhus).


The 2-year OS of the training cohort was 52.5%. Kanofsky performance index, type of the primary tumor, control of the primary tumor, maximum diameter of the treated metastasis and number metastases (1 versus >1) were significant prognostic factors in the Cox model (all p 


We successfully generated and validated a nomogram predicting 2-years OS after SBRT for pulmonary metastases. Primary tumor histology was one of the most important factors influencing OS; however, future prognostic scores need to incorporate the genetic variability within different cancers types.

Clinical trial identification

Legal entity responsible for the study

University Hospital Heidelberg




All authors have declared no conflicts of interest.