198PD - Nomogram for predicting overall survival after stereotactic body radiotherapy for pulmonary metastases: Development and external validation

Date 14 April 2016
Event European Lung Cancer Conference 2016 (ELCC) 2016
Session Predictive models for chemo- and radiotherapy
Topics Thoracic malignancies
Surgical oncology
Therapy
Radiation oncology
Presenter Matthias Guckenberger
Citation Journal of Thoracic Oncology (2016) 11 (supplement 4): S57-S166. S1556-0864(16)X0004-4
Authors M. Guckenberger1, S. Lang2, M. Hoyer3, M.M. Fode3, J. Rieber4, F. Sterzing4
  • 1Department For Radiation Oncology, Universitätsspital Zürich, 8091 - Zürich/CH
  • 2Department For Radiation Oncology, Universitätsspital Zürich, Zürich/CH
  • 3Department Of Oncology, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus C/DK
  • 4Department Of Radiation Oncology, University Hospital Heidelberg, Heidelberg/DE

Abstract

Background

Radical treatment of pulmonary metastases is practiced with increasing frequency since the better recognition and understanding of oligo-metastatic disease. However, patient selection remains challenging with long-term overall survival (OS) in

Methods

A multi-institutional database (n = 23; DEGRO Working Group Stereotaxy) of 671 patients treated with SBRT for 964 pulmonary metastases was used as a training cohort. Cox regression analysis with backward selection of variables (Akaike information criteria) was performed to identify factors to be included in the model to predict 2-year OS after SBRT. Based on this model a nomogram was constructed, calibrated and validated using concordance-index statistics. The nomogram was externally validated using a monocentric database of 92 patients treated with SBRT for pulmonary metastases (University Hospital Aarhus).

Results

The 2-year OS of the training cohort was 52.5%. Kanofsky performance index, type of the primary tumor, control of the primary tumor, maximum diameter of the treated metastasis and number metastases (1 versus >1) were significant prognostic factors in the Cox model (all p 

Conclusions

We successfully generated and validated a nomogram predicting 2-years OS after SBRT for pulmonary metastases. Primary tumor histology was one of the most important factors influencing OS; however, future prognostic scores need to incorporate the genetic variability within different cancers types.

Clinical trial identification

Legal entity responsible for the study

University Hospital Heidelberg

Funding

N/A

Disclosure

All authors have declared no conflicts of interest.